iPlot

Going Human with Shy-Tech

I attended the Trendforum in Munich last week (frog was a sponsor), a two-day conference that gathered European innovation, marketing, and R&D executives to explore emerging technologies, social trends, and innovative business models. The program was eclectic and the content mostly of high quality. I was particularly intrigued by the opening session that intersected macro-economic forecasting with geeky trend evangelism as well as a humanistic pledge for meaning-driven business (in fact, the other sessions didn’t even come close, including special guest Ray Kurzweil, whose remote keynote, given by way of 3D-holographic projection, remained utterly flat).

As the first speaker, Dr. Markku Wilenius, Senior Vice President, Economic Research and Corporate Development with Allianz SE, set the framework by introducing overarching future themes, key challenges facing mankind, from climate change to water scarcity to demographic developments. Forecasting the economic development over the next two decades, he predicted redefined notions and metrics of both societal progress and individual success, and heralded “true value accounting” that would ultimately “decouple consumption from growth.” In ten years, he argued, easy and seamless sustainable choices would have become the norm, as would have “smarter systems.” Wilenius identified four key consumer trends, all to be filed under Consumer Empowerment: Downshifting (simplicity -> value for money, price sensitivity, discounts); Transparency (clarity -> open communicatons, clear essence); Selfness (control -> self-governance, tangibility); and Age of Less (substance -> long-term thinking, lightness). Despite the daunting challenges in these times of crisis, his outlook remained optimistic: “Material scarcity always creates an abundance of ideas.” If that is true, we can look forward to innovative times in which creativity will not only become a crucial skill but an existential means of survival.

Dr. Christine Woesler de Panafieu, founder of CoSight, an international trend research and marketing consulting firm in Paris, picked up the ball and described how the macro-trends Wilenius had pinpointed would alter the lives of consumers. She argued that we were moving from "post- to ultra-modernity," resulting in a renaissance of the renaissance: “the man as measure of all things.” This neo-humanistic mindset would bear a new spiritual quest – “an individual, open path seeking direct resonance with the sacred,” as she put it. The number of pilgrimages is indeed on the rise, as is the number of new religions (and meta-religions such as the recent Charter of Compassion or the portal Beliefnet). “The 21st century will be spiritual or it won’t be at all,” Dr. Woesler de Panafieu quoted a French philosopher. Morality is in high demand, but doing good is shifting from convention to conviction, from a humanitarian to an empowerment approach. For brands, this means they need to become the “right thing to do.” And one only has to look as far as Foursquare to see that converting social currency into real value will the business model of the future.

Nils Müller, founder and CEO of TrendONE, a trend research firm, finally took the audience on a riveting tour de force through much buzzed-about emerging tech trends, envisioning the future in 2020 as a seamless blend between the real and virtual worlds, dominated by location-based, real-time, and social computing applications that turn the Internet into an "Outernet" and “every interface into a surface” – from printed electronics to face recognition to augmented social shopping. He depicted an evolution from “lean back” to “move forward” to “jump in” to “always-on” to “plug in” media. And he showed tons of videos: the "Siftables" - see picture above; the inevitable Microsoft Natal clip; a demo of brainwave-based voiceless communications (theaudeo.com), and a clip on augmented vision enabled by eye chips (tat.se). Their common thread: Technology in disguise, with front-ends that are becoming touchable, intuitive, and human-centric. Mueller coined the term “Shytech” for this phenomenon: technology that can afford to be non-intrusive because it is fully immersive.

In the concluding panel discussion, Dr. Woesler de Panafieu was asked what’s left to do for designers when everything was immersive and one great computing cloud. “Designers’ task will be to make the invisible visible,” she said, “creating the new interaction codes of our societies.” That again alluded to the big mega-trend of Good Computing – without Computers. Designers are the ones who can translate data (and meta-data) into meaning and make morality tangible amidst a flood of information. As they visualize the dematerialization of products and services, how long will it take before the dematerialized world becomes the ideal one?

Frog Design, the Book: How Design Strategies Are Shaping the Future of Business

Frog Design founder and former CEO Hartmut Esslinger has written his first book, and it is available in stores now: A Fine Line – How Design Strategies Are Shaping the Future of Business. Part autobiography, part how-to innovation guide, part outlook to the future of design, A Fine Line is "a must-read for designers and business people alike" (Satjiv Chahil, senior vice president, Hewlett-Packard).

A Fine Line offers a step-by-step overview of the innovation process — from targeting goals to shepherding new products and services to the marketplace — in order to reveal how to arrive at an authentic human design that connects strongly with consumers. With a unique perspective, rich stories, and a global mindset, Esslinger explores business solutions that are environmentally sustainable and contribute to an enduring global economy.

Michael Moritz from Sequoia Capital, in his foreword, said it all: "Hartmut's book contains the ruminations of a man who has devoted his life to the challenge of marrying the aesthetic with the functional while standing firm against the deadening forces of mediocrity. His work shows that taste can triumph, design and production can be soul-mates, and the eye of an individual can shape a product and a company. The idea that finely designed products can change the fate of companies while also becoming our indispensable companions is a message that millions of us owe to Hartmut."

You can find the table of contents, sample chapters, testimonials, and videos on http://www.afinelinebook.com

And here are some excerpts from a video interview with Esslinger:

Troika – the Smart, Multi-Functional Identity Card of the Future?

One of the great things about working at a creative firm is that there's so much creativity around that it sometimes takes non-client-related work to fully channel it. From time to time, my colleagues at frog design embark on concept work for magazines to explore new territory and flex their skills.

The latest piece is a special project for Forbes' Special Report on Identity: The Troika card, a concept for a smarter Social Security card with a multifunctional screen that turns your identity card into a gadget. "Of the three forms of identification we have in the States – the other two being the passport and driver's license – the Social Security card is the one that unlocks your life," says my colleague Laura Richardson. Made of lightweight aluminum, the Troika card is durable but also flexible: A multi-functional screen allows users to switch between driver's license, passport, and Social Security card. Thumbprint identification serves as protection against identity theft. "By combining the familiarity and proportions of a standard ID card with the durability of a water-resistant, flexible screen and the security of biometrics, [a card like this] could revolutionize the future of identification," Richardson says.

Here are the features in detail:

1. Thanks to the thumbprint reader, only the owner of the card is able to activate it.
2. The material of the Color E Ink display scanner is thin film used in electronic displays.
3. Buttons allow the user to select between Social Security, driver's license, and passport information.
4. The sturdy yet light aluminum body will last much longer than a typical plastic card.
5. The water-resistant cover keeps the card shiny and protects it from the elements.

NY Times: "Thinking of Going Blond? Consult the Kiosk First"

Today's New York Times features the modular and customizable retail kiosk prototype frog design, my employer, designed for Intel.

"In devising the prototypes, 'we looked at standard checkout counters,' said Mark Rolston, chief creative officer (of frog design, the blogger). 'The standard cash register takes the money well, but it doesn’t help with the selling process,' for example, suggesting accessories and pointing out what’s on sale, he said. 'On the Internet, people get tons of guidance and information. We wanted to bring that volume of information inside the store, too.'

The kiosks have an uncluttered look. 'We wanted to hide necessities like the cash drawer and the printer,' he said. 'All of that is integrated into the form.” Customers can pay with cash or plastic. In the future, they’ll even be able to pay with cellphones that can be waved, recognized and billed by the computer, Mr. Rolston said.

Within the prototypes are the same chips that Intel uses for power management technology in laptop computers. A screen becomes active only when customers step near; it goes to sleep within a second of their leaving, said Mr. Jensen at Intel, so power use is reduced. A number of manufacturers are building kiosks inspired by the prototypes, Mr. Jensen said. Intel does not plan to make the kiosks itself. Mr. Roster of Gartner predicted that kiosks with varying shapes and applications would soon be found throughout the retail industry, including department stores."

Read more

LIFT09: The Future in Permanent Beta

Getting there

I've been conference-hopping through Europe for the past two weeks. In Berlin, I discussed new "quality of life" concepts for Germany, and in Geneva I listened to speakers who held utopian visions from an earlier era accountable for what could have been but wasn't. My own personal well-being was more mundane. I schlepped two big suitcases with me and saw the sun shine only twice. When you travel so much, you start to feel like Tyler Brule: Quality of life is defined by the quality of the airports you pass through, the quality of the WiFi connections, the quality of the hotel room showers, the quality of the food in the random restaurant next to your hotel, and the quality of the casual human interactions along the way. Really, it's that simple. Travel, as we know, makes the human all too human, bringing to the forefront the five basic human desires that David Rose described in his LIFT09 talk: the desire to know, the desire to protect, the desire to heal, the desire to communicate, and the desire to travel.

Indeed, life is basic when you travel, yet I am frustrated with my inability to process the complexity of everything I hear and see on the road. I know I should blog about all the panels I've attended but I can't even decipher my notes anymore because they're a week old and life has changed. "We must write the story before we forget," as CERN's James Gillies noted in his LIFT09 talk about the origins of the Internet. We live in the now and here, and there is no there there.

Not impressed

Mindful of this preamble, the LIFT09 conference, dedicated to discussing the social implications of technology, came with a special twist this year. Bypassing the here and now, it attempted to directly link yesterday and tomorrow: "Where did the future go?" was the big question during the two days in Geneva, and the program was carefully designed to draw lessons from "a history of the future" in order to develop more enlightened concepts for tomorrow. Re-booting the future, so to speak.

In keeping with the current grim economic mood, the conference bemoaned the shallow glory of sci-fi future visions that, to date, haven't lived up to their promise. What is worse though? Dystopian visions that have become real or utopian visions that haven't? For Patrick J. Gyger, a Swiss historian, curator, and writer, it is clearly the latter. He revisited former notions of the future and investigated what became of them: "What happened to the flying car?" Well, it actually made it to market, like many other product aspirations, yet without much fanfare. Or as Gyger dryly remarked: "The future is here and we're not impressed." Instead, a profound disillusionment with technology-driven visions of a better life has kicked in (space travel, end of poverty, the smart Internet, anyone?), and free-market capitalism has betrayed the idea of sustainable prosperity.

Nicolas Nova applied this retro-skeptical view to the world of business, walking the audience through "the recurring failure of holy grails." He presented a nonchalant history of product flops (from the picture phone to the smart fridge to location-based services), which were in his judgment all hampered by "over-optimism," "lack of knowledge," and "blind faith in the Zeitgeist." Yet I found his definition of product success flawed as it was obviously based on the principle of mass adoption – a questionable proposition in times of increasingly fragmented audiences and micro-markets. Which new product – besides maybe the iPod and the iPhone – has really gone mainstream in the past ten years? Many of the products and technologies Nova stigmatized as "failures" have found their audience in some form and created significant value both for their inventors and consumers. Yet we simply fail to recognize their success since it occurs in market niches and communities.

Both Nova and Gyger heralded a more pragmatic model of future-oriented thinking. But I'm not sure if I share their skepticism towards grand visions. What if the future has arrived, however – to paraphrase William Gibson – it is so widely distributed (that is, buried in fragmented micro-markets) that we don't notice it?

Lives in the open

In any case, for a no-show, the future was still suspiciously present at LIFT09. Matt Webb (co-author of "Mind Hacks") described "the pleasure of watching things unfold" and recommended a "narrative" process for invention and creation (of which his Olinda radio prototype is a brilliant example), highlighting in particular the role of writing in the context of design: "Design is a way of walking over the landscape of possible worlds."

Clive van Heerden, senior director of design-led innovation at Philips Design, showed some of Phillips' PROBES videos that explore 'emotional sensing' – from electronic tattoos to skin dresses to food creation.

Fabio Sergio, creative director at frog design's Milan studio, laid out the power of "design thinking for the future." He used the case study of Project Masiluleke (a large-scale initiative that leverages mobile technologies to combat HIV/AIDS in South Africa) to illustrate a model of design that "is not about creating compelling visions of perfect futures but rather shaping betas of presents of a future we want to live in." Quoting an Italian bus customer ("In the past you had to stamp the ticket. Now you simply have to caress the machine."), he spanned the arch from 'form follows function' to 'form follows emotion' to 'form follows meaning' (design that resonates with people's value systems). Empathy, technology as "material to sketch with," people-centered user experiences, and social impact – these are, according to Sergio, the characteristics of "meaningful design."

Empathy, in particular, is not only the foundation for meaningful social innovation projects (pro-bono or for-profit), it is also the very prerequisite for every act of human cooperation. Sympathy creates compassion, empathy breeds solidarity. However, solidarity does not always mean consensus, as UCLA's Ramesh Srinivasan pointed out. He suggested the indigenous use of digital objects and called for systems that "celebrate difference" instead of eradicating it.

Finally, Bill Thompson's vision of the future was optimistically fatalistic or pessimistically upbeat, depending on your point of view. He rocked the house with a provocative obituary. "Privacy is dead," he argued passionately, "get over it!" Instead of complaining about this, Thompson pledged we should embrace the new freedom that comes with radical transparency. The abstract of his talk is so succinct that I simply want to repost it here verbatim:

"The enlightenment idea of privacy is breaking apart under the strain of new technologies, social tools and the emergence of the database state. We cannot hold back the tide, but we can use it as an opportunity to rethink what we understand by 'personality', how we engage and interact with others and where the boundaries can be put between the public and private. Those of us who are ahead of the curve when it comes to the adoption and use of technologies that undermine the old model of privacy have much to teach those who will come after us, and can offer advice and support to those who might be unhappy to have their movements, eating habits, friendships and patterns of media consumption made available to all. But every Twitterer, Tumblr, Dopplr or Brightkite user at Lift is sharing more data with more people than even the FBI under Hoover or the Stasi at the height of its powers could have dreamed of. And we do so willingly, hoping to benefit in unquantifiable ways from this unwarranted - in all senses - disclosure. I'll argue that we are in the vanguard of creating not just new forms of social organisation but new ways of being human."

This new post-privacy era is not without risks: Thompson conceded that "some will suffer, some will even suffer imprisonment." But that wouldn't release us, the digital avant-garde, from our responsibilities. His mandate for the creative tech community assembled at LIFT09 was in fact a moral obligation: "You need to act as mentors for everyone living their life in the open."

I have, I do, I will.

Kindle? Here Comes the Talking Book!

Everyone's talking about the new Kindle, but here's a product that may present an even more radical innovation in the e-book sector: The Talking Book, created and distributed by the non-profit Literacy Bridge, is a low cost audio player/recorder with special features for Knowledge Sharing and Literacy Learning. It was developed entirely by volunteers and costs less than $10. The device involves an ecosystem to produce and share locally relevant audio content, allowing users to record their own messages and distribute them within local networks through a device-to-device copying capability. Other features include slow play for reading practice and some interactive features (for educational lessons and games).

The man behind Literacy Bridge is former Microsoft program manager Cliff Schmidt, who studied artificial intelligence and spent much of his time thinking about how literacy can play a role in moving people out of poverty. Schmidt believes that in a country like Ghana having spoken information at hand will help people avoid lengthy trips to visit clinics or other offices. As a next step, he envisions using the Talking Books to reach women in Afghanistan (90% of whom are illiterate), but ideally the device could of course be used anywhere in the world.

While it may not have the media hype of the One Laptop per Child project (yet), the Talking Book may indeed yield greater impact. The thinking behind the device is compelling, and the opportunities that come with using commodity components to create a rich service are fascinating.

Somebody Else's Phone: Would You Look Through It?

Somebody Else’s Phone: Would you Look Through It? If you found somebody else's phone, would you look through it? That’s a rhetorical question. Of course! Your phone is your life, at least if you’re under 25, and there’s nothing more interesting than the “Lives of Others.”

Wieden + Kennedy London translated the idea of “Cellular Oversharing” into a much gushed-about advertising campaign for Nokia. "Somebody else’s phone" depicts the lives of three twenty-something’s through their text messages, MMS, and pictures, and it essentially creates a new story format: the phone novel. Fusing scripted content with real life audience interaction, the campaign runs in ten different languages, following the characters’ evolving storylines through a 24/7 feed of content, across three time zones, over 6 weeks.

Nice idea although the Luon blog comments: “Sometimes it feels a bit like trying too hard. The advertising-tries-to-be-socially-smart’ thing, where it's not clear what is real and what is fake.” But that’s exactly the point. Fake authenticity -- I’ve already written about “Mad Men” on Twitter in this context -- is a burgeoning trend. Fake is fine as long as it feels real. We’ll see more of it in 2009.

For China, the Financial Crisis is an Opportunity

I asked my colleagues in frog design's Shanghai studio about their perspective on the current economic downturn, and here's what they wrote back:

"The US may be the initiator of this round of global economic recession but it may not be the final payer. China's economy is about to suffer as well - and in more ways than one. And yet, the people who have been around the longest know not to pay too much attention to one-direction comments. They know that the sufferers will always shout much louder than the beneficiaries. They also know that there are ways to take advantage of the economic downturn.

In China, the rule of the game is always "Stay One Step Ahead of Your Competitors." There are some companies in this country - mostly the ones that operate domestically only - that will remain silent. Culturally it's what they've always done and what they always will do when facing these situations. Other companies will be more pro-active.

For example, when Chinese businesses run out of initiatives in which to invest their capital or when their investments stop growing (which is happening in stocks and real estate, two markets that have yielded big returns in recent years), they make a concerted effort to get back to the basics and invest in research and development. In fact, senior executives in some companies have said publicly that in the near future they would either invest in their own health and personal happiness, or they would increase R&D budgets in their businesses to invest in better products to prepare for a new run when the downturn ends.

This may be a survival strategy - that is, a strategy shift from the short term to the long term - but surviving a crisis is better than suffering from it. While the current crisis is eliminating big and small market players still trying to eke out short term gains in the form of cost cutting measures, the survivors will ride out the crisis while positioning themselves to win in the long term. The economic recession in Hong Kong fifteen years ago is a great example. In 1993, business opportunity in Shanghai was largely non-existent, but that didn't stop one Hong Kong property developer from buying cheap land and developing it in the center of the city. He envisioned Shanghai as the hub of Asia and the future of China, and he turned out to be right. He now owns several of the buildings in the heart of the Central Business District. The real estate developer's strategic long-term vision not only saved his company from the economic recession in Hong Kong, it also made him one of the biggest market players in the mainland property market.

So, while big global marketers withdraw themselves from the game, Chinese brands have a good opportunity to step up by investing money in R&D and product innovation, which will bring to market world-class products. The entrepreneur spirit always involves a combination of risk taking and long-term strategic planning, and indeed, the Chinese people have proven themselves and excelled as entrepreneurs. The reformation opened China's door to the world, and the skyrocketing economy created a Chinese "Gold Rush" that lured the world to underpriced real estate, amenable trade laws, and a surge of capital into the stock market. Now the challenge for Chinese entrepreneurs is finding opportunity in more unconventional places.

It could be that in the coming months and years, businesses in China will reinforce the domestic market as a way to fend off the global reverberations from the economic downturn. Domestic companies could add Western assets at a good value. More importantly, though, China can leverage the economic gains it has made over the past ten years into more investments in domestic R&D and innovation. This puts a premium on vision and strategic planning instead of short-term financial risk taking, and ultimately, that's going to benefit everyone, even as some will suffer now."

The PC is an Oven and the Oven a PC

Mark Rolston, frog design's Chief Creative Officer, is featured in a story by the German news magazine STERN.

If you speak or want to learn some German, here's the full article.

If you don't speak German, you may at least enjoy the video below, in which Mark demoes the new HP TouchSmart PC (frog did the software UI) and the fully frog-designed TurboChef high-speed oven -- as perfect examples of how the convergence of software and hardware is driving innovation in the world of consumer products.

Quiet is the New Loud

Rob Walker, the author of the just-released "Buying in," is a marketing connoisseur, an expert in reading the cultural underpinnings of commerce. In his Consumed column for the New York Times Magazine, he examines how technology shapes consumer culture and vice versa. In tomorrow's piece he elaborates on the history of headphones, and how their role evolved in modern society, from the first Bose set to the Sony Walkman to the iPod earbuds.

With the miniaturization of devices, the public exposure of personal space increased. I remember that when I was 14, I came home from school, had lunch, and didn't wait a second to lie down on my bed, put my clunky Sennheiser headphones on, and listen to an album I had just bought. Thomas Dolby's "Aliens Ate My Buick" or Prince's "Sign of the Times." I closed my eyes and forgot the world around me. It was a moment of total immersion and uncompromising intimacy, both with the artist and myself. I wasn't ready to share the music with anyone else until I had fully experienced and vetted every single note through the immediacy of the headphone connection.

Looking back, headphones seem to have anticipated the era of performance-enhancing body extensions that we may be entering soon, but at the same time they now appear like a nostalgic relict of a time when the supply of attention among young consumers was still excessive. Having their social function shifted from providing excessive to expressive intimacy, headphones have become a status symbol for consumers who want to consume in between or parallel to other activities, and who want do that on their own terms -- in public, alone; in a perfect manifestation of what psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan coined "extimacy." The album has dissolved into 99-cent units on iTunes, and the headphone experience has been succeeded by portable soundtracks for permanent distraction.

Rob Walker will read from his new book "Buying In" at the frog Design Mind speaker series in New York on June 11.