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September 14, 2005


My theory is the following:

-the #1 strategic threat for eBay is competition coming from global large cheaper auction/ecommerce communities (free or cheap for both buyers and sellers)

-the main three communities I know that have that potential are: Google, Skype and Craig's list

-Craig's list is too local (and eBay has already invested in them)

-Skype had that potential because the P2P cost structure and their initial success (global success) was putting them on the right track. Plus buying them prevented someone else (Yahoo! or MSFT) to do it and execute that plan.

-Google is the main one left (but also has a 70% higher market cap than eBay)! I cannot wait for the day they actually start somekind of "ecommerce" effort...

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